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Tesla Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

46.58%

decreased by 1.55%

1 Week

46.92%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Month

48.20%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tesla Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 daysv = 4.14 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run15.6418
1.04
αscore0.0452
8.91***
βpersistence0.9908
115.12***
νDF4.1391
2.56**

0.991

Persistence

75d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

15.6418
1.04
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0452
8.91***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9908
115.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1391
2.56**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days