V-Lab
Tesla Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
57.25%
decreased by 2.23%
1 Week
57.37%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Month
57.80%
decreased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2010 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 daysv = 4.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.9077 | 1.04 |
| αARCH | 0.0453 | 9.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9909 | 116.13*** |
| νDF | 4.1073 | 2.62*** |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.9077 | 1.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 9.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9909 | 116.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1073 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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