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Tesla Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

57.25%

decreased by 2.23%

1 Week

57.37%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Month

57.80%

decreased by 1.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Tesla Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 29, 2010 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 daysv = 4.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.9077
1.04
αARCH0.0453
9.00***
βGARCH0.9909
116.13***
νDF4.1073
2.62***

0.991

Persistence

75d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.9077
1.04
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0453
9.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9909
116.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1073
2.62***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days