Tesla Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
35.56%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
36.01%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
37.17%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0353 | 4.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0442 | 3.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8909 | 30.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0328 | -0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0057 | -0.04 |
| γ3 | 0.2035 | 2.39** |
| γ4 | -0.3319 | -4.23*** |
| γ5 | 0.2780 | 3.13*** |
| γ6 | -0.3133 | -2.09** |
0.935
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0353 | 4.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0442 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8909 | 30.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0328 | -0.33 |
| γ2 | -0.0057 | -0.04 |
| γ3 | 0.2035 | 2.39** |
| γ4 | -0.3319 | -4.23*** |
| γ5 | 0.2780 | 3.13*** |
| γ6 | -0.3133 | -2.09** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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