V-Lab
AT&T Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.98%
increased by 0.86%
1 Week
23.03%
increased by 0.91%
1 Month
23.21%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9413 | 7.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0720 | 9.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8851 | 70.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0334 | 1.44 |
| γ2 | -0.0168 | -0.49 |
| γ3 | -0.0958 | -3.86*** |
| γ4 | 0.1436 | 6.35*** |
| γ5 | -0.0918 | -4.47*** |
| γ6 | 0.0634 | 2.57** |
| γ7 | -0.0521 | -1.40 |
| γ8 | -0.0119 | -0.15 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9413 | 7.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0720 | 9.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8851 | 70.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0334 | 1.44 |
| γ2 | -0.0168 | -0.49 |
| γ3 | -0.0958 | -3.86*** |
| γ4 | 0.1436 | 6.35*** |
| γ5 | -0.0918 | -4.47*** |
| γ6 | 0.0634 | 2.57** |
| γ7 | -0.0521 | -1.40 |
| γ8 | -0.0119 | -0.15 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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