V-Lab
AT&T Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.06%
increased by 5.93%
1 Week
34.53%
increased by 5.40%
1 Month
32.87%
increased by 3.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9469 | 7.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0713 | 8.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8848 | 69.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0333 | 1.46 |
| γ2 | -0.0161 | -0.47 |
| γ3 | -0.0960 | -3.88*** |
| γ4 | 0.1420 | 6.32*** |
| γ5 | -0.0915 | -4.52*** |
| γ6 | 0.0679 | 2.92*** |
| γ7 | -0.0632 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 0.0221 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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