V-Lab
AT&T Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
24.12%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
24.45%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
25.43%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9347 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0714 | 8.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8845 | 69.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0317 | 1.39 |
| γ2 | -0.0149 | -0.44 |
| γ3 | -0.0945 | -3.83*** |
| γ4 | 0.1404 | 6.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.0899 | -4.46*** |
| γ6 | 0.0660 | 2.88*** |
| γ7 | -0.0628 | -2.52** |
| γ8 | 0.0233 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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