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V-Lab

AT&T Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

59.08%

increased by 36.42%

1 Week

56.00%

increased by 33.34%

1 Month

47.09%

increased by 24.43%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AT&T Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 105% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 105% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0537
4.92***
βGARCH0.8162
33.51***
γleverage0.0566
3.59***
λ₁tau intercept0.0107
1.60
λ₂forecast adj.0.0413
2.64***
λ₃tau persistence0.9549
54.37***

0.898

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0537
4.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8162
33.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0566
3.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0107
1.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0413
2.64***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9549
54.37***

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days