V-Lab
AT&T Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
26.94%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
27.02%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
27.13%
decreased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0545 | 5.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8223 | 36.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.0566 | 3.64*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0104 | 1.60 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0380 | 2.64*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9580 | 58.25*** |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 5.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8223 | 36.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0566 | 3.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 1.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0380 | 2.64*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9580 | 58.25*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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