AT&T Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
45.11%
decreased by 2.31%
1 Week
43.40%
decreased by 4.02%
1 Month
39.65%
decreased by 7.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 106% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 106% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0527 | 4.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8210 | 34.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.0560 | 3.63*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0106 | 1.59 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0410 | 2.63*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9553 | 54.72*** |
0.902
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0527 | 4.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8210 | 34.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0560 | 3.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0106 | 1.59 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0410 | 2.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9553 | 54.72*** |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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