V-Lab
AT&T Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.21%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
25.61%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
26.39%
increased by 1.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0544 | 5.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8227 | 36.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0568 | 3.66*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0104 | 1.61 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0377 | 2.64*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9582 | 58.75*** |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0544 | 5.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8227 | 36.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0568 | 3.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 1.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0377 | 2.64*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9582 | 58.75*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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