QTREX Quantum Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
122.06%
decreased by 28.73%
1 Week
157.87%
increased by 7.08%
1 Month
198.18%
increased by 47.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2021 to Oct 23, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.1678 | 1.79* |
| βGARCH | 0.2868 | 2.18** |
| γleverage | 0.2154 | 1.31 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 2.09** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5146 | 2.15** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2455 | 0.87 |
0.562
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1678 | 1.79* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2868 | 2.18** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2154 | 1.31 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.09** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5146 | 2.15** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2455 | 0.87 |
Persistence:
0.562
Half-life:
1 days
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