V-Lab
QTREX Quantum Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
169.46%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
200.13%
increased by 29.90%
1 Month
210.71%
increased by 40.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5255 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3530 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0583 | 0.77 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -17.7387 | -1.87* |
| γ2 | 26.0477 | 1.96** |
| γ3 | -13.2271 | -2.43** |
| γ4 | 6.2367 | 1.81* |
| γ5 | 1.7931 | 0.41 |
| γ6 | -9.2749 | -2.26** |
| γ7 | 15.0589 | 3.58*** |
| γ8 | -17.6383 | -4.27*** |
| γ9 | 16.1059 | 4.21*** |
| γ10 | -9.4884 | -1.82* |
Persistence:
0.411
Half-life:
1 days
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