V-Lab
CVS Health Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.90%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
28.93%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
31.00%
increased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0555 | 10.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0700 | 5.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8242 | 30.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0136 | 0.47 |
| γ2 | 0.0676 | 1.46 |
| γ3 | -0.1691 | -4.75*** |
| γ4 | 0.0733 | 1.83* |
| γ5 | 0.0984 | 2.00** |
| γ6 | -0.2107 | -4.20*** |
| γ7 | 0.2723 | 5.57*** |
| γ8 | -0.2340 | -5.36*** |
| γ9 | 0.1558 | 3.06*** |
| γ10 | -0.1469 | -1.50 |
0.894
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0555 | 10.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0700 | 5.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8242 | 30.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0136 | 0.47 |
| γ2 | 0.0676 | 1.46 |
| γ3 | -0.1691 | -4.75*** |
| γ4 | 0.0733 | 1.83* |
| γ5 | 0.0984 | 2.00** |
| γ6 | -0.2107 | -4.20*** |
| γ7 | 0.2723 | 5.57*** |
| γ8 | -0.2340 | -5.36*** |
| γ9 | 0.1558 | 3.06*** |
| γ10 | -0.1469 | -1.50 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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