V-Lab
CVS Health Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
29.38%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
30.29%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
32.11%
increased by 2.30%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0543 | 10.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0698 | 5.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8244 | 30.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0136 | 0.47 |
| γ2 | 0.0675 | 1.46 |
| γ3 | -0.1681 | -4.70*** |
| γ4 | 0.0710 | 1.76* |
| γ5 | 0.1016 | 2.05** |
| γ6 | -0.2135 | -4.23*** |
| γ7 | 0.2732 | 5.57*** |
| γ8 | -0.2322 | -5.30*** |
| γ9 | 0.1513 | 2.95*** |
| γ10 | -0.1359 | -1.40 |
0.894
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0543 | 10.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0698 | 5.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8244 | 30.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0136 | 0.47 |
| γ2 | 0.0675 | 1.46 |
| γ3 | -0.1681 | -4.70*** |
| γ4 | 0.0710 | 1.76* |
| γ5 | 0.1016 | 2.05** |
| γ6 | -0.2135 | -4.23*** |
| γ7 | 0.2732 | 5.57*** |
| γ8 | -0.2322 | -5.30*** |
| γ9 | 0.1513 | 2.95*** |
| γ10 | -0.1359 | -1.40 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
Other CVS Health Corp Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities