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V-Lab
V-Lab

CVS Health Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

29.38%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

30.29%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

32.11%

increased by 2.30%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CVS Health Corp SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0543
10.24***
αARCH0.0698
5.57***
βGARCH0.8244
30.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0136
0.47
γ20.0675
1.46
γ3-0.1681
-4.70***
γ40.0710
1.76*
γ50.1016
2.05**
γ6-0.2135
-4.23***
γ70.2732
5.57***
γ8-0.2322
-5.30***
γ90.1513
2.95***
γ10-0.1359
-1.40

0.894

Persistence

6d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0543
10.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0698
5.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8244
30.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0136
0.47
γ20.0675
1.46
γ3-0.1681
-4.70***
γ40.0710
1.76*
γ50.1016
2.05**
γ6-0.2135
-4.23***
γ70.2732
5.57***
γ8-0.2322
-5.30***
γ90.1513
2.95***
γ10-0.1359
-1.40

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days