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V-Lab

CVS Health Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

39.89%

increased by 5.78%

1 Week

39.91%

increased by 5.80%

1 Month

39.95%

increased by 5.84%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CVS Health Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0665
10.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0676
5.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8319
31.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0259
0.87
γ20.0441
0.93
γ3-0.1448
-3.95***
γ40.0484
1.15
γ50.1174
2.28**
γ6-0.2186
-4.13***
γ70.2663
5.22***
γ8-0.2140
-4.95***
γ90.1246
3.26***
γ10-0.0819
-2.59***

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days