V-Lab
CVS Health Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
39.89%
increased by 5.78%
1 Week
39.91%
increased by 5.80%
1 Month
39.95%
increased by 5.84%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0665 | 10.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0676 | 5.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8319 | 31.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0259 | 0.87 |
| γ2 | 0.0441 | 0.93 |
| γ3 | -0.1448 | -3.95*** |
| γ4 | 0.0484 | 1.15 |
| γ5 | 0.1174 | 2.28** |
| γ6 | -0.2186 | -4.13*** |
| γ7 | 0.2663 | 5.22*** |
| γ8 | -0.2140 | -4.95*** |
| γ9 | 0.1246 | 3.26*** |
| γ10 | -0.0819 | -2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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