V-Lab
CVS Health Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
33.36%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
34.56%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
37.03%
increased by 3.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0768 | 10.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0678 | 5.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8297 | 30.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0273 | 0.94 |
| γ2 | 0.0432 | 0.93 |
| γ3 | -0.1498 | -4.19*** |
| γ4 | 0.0607 | 1.50 |
| γ5 | 0.1012 | 2.04** |
| γ6 | -0.2044 | -4.00*** |
| γ7 | 0.2588 | 5.23*** |
| γ8 | -0.2134 | -5.07*** |
| γ9 | 0.1234 | 3.38*** |
| γ10 | -0.0774 | -2.67*** |
0.897
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0768 | 10.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0678 | 5.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8297 | 30.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0273 | 0.94 |
| γ2 | 0.0432 | 0.93 |
| γ3 | -0.1498 | -4.19*** |
| γ4 | 0.0607 | 1.50 |
| γ5 | 0.1012 | 2.04** |
| γ6 | -0.2044 | -4.00*** |
| γ7 | 0.2588 | 5.23*** |
| γ8 | -0.2134 | -5.07*** |
| γ9 | 0.1234 | 3.38*** |
| γ10 | -0.0774 | -2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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