V-Lab
CVS Health Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.94%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
29.05%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
29.45%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 287% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 287% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0434 | 3.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0205 | 2.24** |
| βGARCH | 0.9407 | 91.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.0590 | 3.46*** |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0434 | 3.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0205 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9407 | 91.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0590 | 3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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