V-Lab
CVS Health Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
27.33%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
27.47%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
28.01%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 288% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 288% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0433 | 3.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0205 | 2.24** |
| βGARCH | 0.9408 | 91.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.0590 | 3.47*** |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 3.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0205 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9408 | 91.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0590 | 3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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