V-Lab
CVS Health Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
34.47%
increased by 8.74%
1 Week
34.47%
increased by 8.74%
1 Month
34.50%
increased by 8.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 313% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0430 | 12.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0196 | 8.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9407 | 369.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0614 | 14.52*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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