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V-Lab

CVS Health Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

27.33%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

27.47%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

28.01%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CVS Health Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 288% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 288% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0433
3.28***
αARCH0.0205
2.24**
βGARCH0.9408
91.89***
γleverage0.0590
3.47***

0.991

Persistence

75d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
3.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0205
2.24**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9408
91.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0590
3.47***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days