Home Depot Inc/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
26.98%
increased by 2.43%
1 Week
27.14%
increased by 2.59%
1 Month
27.76%
increased by 3.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 362% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~125 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 362% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0334 | 3.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0230 | 3.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9299 | 128.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.0832 | 4.85*** |
0.994
Persistence125d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0334 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0230 | 3.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9299 | 128.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0832 | 4.85*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
125 days
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