V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
26.76%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
26.93%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
27.56%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 370% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~123 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 370% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0338 | 3.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0228 | 3.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9293 | 127.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.0844 | 4.88*** |
0.994
Persistence123d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 3.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0228 | 3.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9293 | 127.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0844 | 4.88*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
123 days
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