V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
23.35%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
23.65%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
24.57%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1924 | 8.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0776 | 8.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8850 | 69.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0183 | 0.68 |
| γ2 | 0.0002 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.0853 | -2.20** |
| γ4 | 0.1321 | 4.13*** |
| γ5 | -0.1139 | -4.42*** |
| γ6 | 0.0944 | 3.19*** |
| γ7 | -0.0588 | -1.88* |
| γ8 | 0.0084 | 0.39 |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1924 | 8.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 8.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8850 | 69.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0183 | 0.68 |
| γ2 | 0.0002 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.0853 | -2.20** |
| γ4 | 0.1321 | 4.13*** |
| γ5 | -0.1139 | -4.42*** |
| γ6 | 0.0944 | 3.19*** |
| γ7 | -0.0588 | -1.88* |
| γ8 | 0.0084 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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