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Home Depot Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

22.80%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

23.14%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

24.16%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Home Depot Inc/The S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1855
8.10***
αARCH0.0774
8.63***
βGARCH0.8852
69.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0172
0.64
γ20.0016
0.04
γ3-0.0857
-2.22**
γ40.1322
4.14***
γ5-0.1140
-4.43***
γ60.0947
3.21***
γ7-0.0598
-1.92*
γ80.0094
0.45

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1855
8.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0774
8.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8852
69.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0172
0.64
γ20.0016
0.04
γ3-0.0857
-2.22**
γ40.1322
4.14***
γ5-0.1140
-4.43***
γ60.0947
3.21***
γ7-0.0598
-1.92*
γ80.0094
0.45

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days