V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
22.80%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
23.14%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
24.16%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1855 | 8.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0774 | 8.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8852 | 69.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0172 | 0.64 |
| γ2 | 0.0016 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.0857 | -2.22** |
| γ4 | 0.1322 | 4.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.1140 | -4.43*** |
| γ6 | 0.0947 | 3.21*** |
| γ7 | -0.0598 | -1.92* |
| γ8 | 0.0094 | 0.45 |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1855 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0774 | 8.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8852 | 69.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0172 | 0.64 |
| γ2 | 0.0016 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.0857 | -2.22** |
| γ4 | 0.1322 | 4.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.1140 | -4.43*** |
| γ6 | 0.0947 | 3.21*** |
| γ7 | -0.0598 | -1.92* |
| γ8 | 0.0094 | 0.45 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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