V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
28.43%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
28.37%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
28.21%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2248 | 8.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0789 | 8.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8828 | 68.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0206 | 0.77 |
| γ2 | -0.0007 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.0887 | -2.27** |
| γ4 | 0.1352 | 4.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.1153 | -4.44*** |
| γ6 | 0.0929 | 3.08*** |
| γ7 | -0.0534 | -1.70* |
| γ8 | 0.0028 | 0.13 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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