V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
24.91%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
25.10%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
25.68%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1903 | 8.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0777 | 8.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8848 | 69.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0179 | 0.67 |
| γ2 | 0.0011 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.0865 | -2.23** |
| γ4 | 0.1331 | 4.16*** |
| γ5 | -0.1142 | -4.41*** |
| γ6 | 0.0936 | 3.14*** |
| γ7 | -0.0568 | -1.81* |
| γ8 | 0.0064 | 0.30 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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