Home Depot Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
28.67%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
28.59%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
28.31%
decreased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2188 | 8.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0779 | 8.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8842 | 68.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0197 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | 0.0004 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.0890 | -2.28** |
| γ4 | 0.1355 | 4.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.1155 | -4.44*** |
| γ6 | 0.0931 | 3.10*** |
| γ7 | -0.0543 | -1.73* |
| γ8 | 0.0038 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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