Home Depot Inc/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
28.70%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
28.74%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Month
28.99%
decreased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0120 | 6.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8412 | 156.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1343 | 31.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0239 | 2.86*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0673 | 3.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9257 | 46.63*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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