V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
32.66%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
32.64%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
32.57%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9107 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0675 | 35.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 547.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0425 | 8.09*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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