Home Depot Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.91%
1 Week
30.92%
1 Month
30.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.0481 | 1.15 |
| αscore | 0.0680 | 9.12*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9928 | 154.26*** |
| νDF | 6.4506 | 1.97** |
0.993
Persistence96d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.0481 | 1.15 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0680 | 9.12*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 154.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4506 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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