V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
31.76%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
31.76%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
31.73%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9024 | 4.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0672 | 35.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 556.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1118 | 8.00*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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