V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
23.54%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
23.68%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Month
24.20%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 daysv = 6.13 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.8548 | 1.13 |
| αARCH | 0.0669 | 8.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9921 | 137.91*** |
| νDF | 6.1289 | 1.98** |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8548 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0669 | 8.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9921 | 137.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1289 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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