V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.82%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
24.94%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
25.36%
decreased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 daysv = 6.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.8688 | 1.12 |
| αARCH | 0.0670 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9922 | 138.17*** |
| νDF | 6.1229 | 1.98** |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8688 | 1.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0670 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 138.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1229 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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