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V-Lab

MindForge Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

265.19%

decreased by 4.55%

1 Week

263.61%

decreased by 6.13%

1 Month

257.62%

decreased by 12.12%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of MindForge Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

120.5537
5.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1122
35.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9894
655.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4259
25.12***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days