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V-Lab

MindForge Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

304.01%

decreased by 41.48%

1 Week

301.77%

decreased by 43.72%

1 Month

293.28%

decreased by 52.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of MindForge Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

121.5809
5.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1161
34.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9889
627.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4293
23.13***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days