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MindForge Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

146.67%

decreased by 8.36%

1 Week

147.31%

decreased by 7.72%

1 Month

149.64%

decreased by 5.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of MindForge Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 3.38 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst118.3751
1.36
αARCH0.1121
9.15***
βGARCH0.9887
142.40***
νDF3.3807
6.66***

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

118.3751
1.36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1121
9.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9887
142.40***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3807
6.66***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days