V-Lab
Onterris Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
69.03%
decreased by 7.98%
1 Week
67.59%
decreased by 9.42%
1 Month
65.65%
decreased by 11.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 23, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 4.42 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.5627 | 1.94* |
| αARCH | 0.0813 | 1.08 |
| βGARCH | 0.7958 | 5.37*** |
| νDF | 4.4237 | 0.38 |
0.796
Persistence3d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.5627 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 1.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7958 | 5.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4237 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.796
Half-life:
3 days
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