V-Lab
Onterris Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
56.89%
increased by 3.03%
1 Week
59.44%
increased by 5.58%
1 Month
62.61%
increased by 8.75%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 23, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 4.48 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.3731 | 2.01** |
| αARCH | 0.0832 | 1.12 |
| βGARCH | 0.7961 | 5.58*** |
| νDF | 4.4814 | 0.39 |
0.796
Persistence3d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.3731 | 2.01** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0832 | 1.12 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7961 | 5.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4814 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.796
Half-life:
3 days
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