V-Lab
RTX Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
17.66%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
17.91%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
18.80%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-lifev = 5.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7254 | 1.40 |
| αARCH | 0.0664 | 8.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9881 | 106.53*** |
| νDF | 5.3268 | 2.26** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7254 | 1.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0664 | 8.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9881 | 106.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3268 | 2.26** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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