V-Lab
VenHub Global Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
212.16%
increased by 49.14%
1 Week
221.10%
increased by 58.08%
1 Month
252.00%
increased by 88.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1,055.9430 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2475 | 18.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9912 | 747.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7580 | 6.42*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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