V-Lab
VenHub Global Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
128.57%
increased by 37.11%
1 Week
141.72%
increased by 50.26%
1 Month
183.44%
increased by 91.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 daysv = 3.82 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1,074.3974 | 1.48 |
| αARCH | 0.2668 | 5.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9930 | 256.71*** |
| νDF | 3.8160 | 1.98** |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1,074.3974 | 1.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2668 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 256.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8160 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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