V-Lab
VenHub Global Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
110.15%
decreased by 21.64%
1 Week
124.52%
decreased by 7.27%
1 Month
168.33%
increased by 36.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~92 daysv = 4.34 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 943.2109 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.2748 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9925 | 232.05*** |
| νDF | 4.3433 | 1.55 |
0.992
Persistence92d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 943.2109 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2748 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9925 | 232.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3433 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
92 days
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