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Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

19.00%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

19.63%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

21.97%

increased by 2.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 01:24 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 4.52 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run54.3107
2.55**
αscore0.0782
11.18***
βpersistence0.9990
1,998.00***
νDF4.5224
8.76***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

54.3107
2.55**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0782
11.18***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,998.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5224
8.76***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days