V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
21.90%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Week
22.59%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
25.12%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 665 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 59.9922 | 10.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0834 | 46.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 8,255.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3307 | 43.31*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
665 days
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