V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
27.16%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
27.73%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
29.88%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 637 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~637 daysv = 4.28 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 59.9068 | 2.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0827 | 11.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9989 | 2,042.77*** |
| νDF | 4.2781 | 11.16*** |
0.999
Persistence637d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 59.9068 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0827 | 11.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 2,042.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2781 | 11.16*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
637 days
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