Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

27.16%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Week

27.73%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Month

29.88%

increased by 0.96%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 637 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~637 daysv = 4.28 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst59.9068
2.60***
αARCH0.0827
11.76***
βGARCH0.9989
2,042.77***
νDF4.2781
11.16***

0.999

Persistence

637d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

59.9068
2.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0827
11.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9989
2,042.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2781
11.16***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

637 days