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V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

36.69%

increased by 5.52%

1 Week

37.09%

increased by 5.92%

1 Month

38.66%

increased by 7.49%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 638 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.0866
10.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0827
46.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9989
8,121.26***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2938
44.26***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

638 days