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Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

39.29%

decreased by 2.77%

1 Week

39.69%

decreased by 2.37%

1 Month

41.27%

decreased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 590 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~590 daysv = 4.29 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst60.5796
2.57**
αARCH0.0837
11.74***
βGARCH0.9988
1,917.13***
νDF4.2936
10.87***

0.999

Persistence

590d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.5796
2.57**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0837
11.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9988
1,917.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2936
10.87***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

590 days