V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
36.69%
increased by 5.52%
1 Week
37.09%
increased by 5.92%
1 Month
38.66%
increased by 7.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 638 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.0866 | 10.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0827 | 46.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 8,121.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2938 | 44.26*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
638 days
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