V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
39.32%
increased by 1.23%
1 Week
39.70%
increased by 1.61%
1 Month
41.17%
increased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 631 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~631 daysv = 4.24 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 60.4773 | 2.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0826 | 11.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9989 | 2,026.17*** |
| νDF | 4.2403 | 11.63*** |
0.999
Persistence631d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 60.4773 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0826 | 11.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 2,026.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2403 | 11.63*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
631 days
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