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V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

21.90%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

22.59%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

25.12%

increased by 1.93%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 665 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

59.9922
10.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0834
46.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
8,255.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3307
43.31***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

665 days