V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
34.29%
increased by 3.57%
1 Week
32.72%
increased by 2.00%
1 Month
30.85%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8525 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0619 | 2.21** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6991 | 3.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -6.0328 | -1.19 |
| γ2 | 8.1657 | 1.19 |
| γ3 | -2.0056 | -0.66 |
| γ4 | -1.2494 | -0.43 |
| γ5 | 2.5215 | 0.77 |
| γ6 | -7.2650 | -1.66* |
| γ7 | 15.4964 | 3.62*** |
| γ8 | -18.1593 | -5.27*** |
| γ9 | 13.3925 | 4.75*** |
| γ10 | -5.7239 | -3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.761
Half-life:
3 days
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