V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
25.19%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
26.08%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
27.11%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8418 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0644 | 2.35** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7098 | 3.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -6.2866 | -1.20 |
| γ2 | 8.5099 | 1.21 |
| γ3 | -2.1331 | -0.68 |
| γ4 | -1.2083 | -0.41 |
| γ5 | 2.6990 | 0.80 |
| γ6 | -7.7800 | -1.73* |
| γ7 | 15.8771 | 3.67*** |
| γ8 | -17.6964 | -5.08*** |
| γ9 | 12.0051 | 4.22*** |
| γ10 | -4.3920 | -2.16** |
Persistence:
0.774
Half-life:
3 days
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