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V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

34.29%

increased by 3.57%

1 Week

32.72%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

30.85%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8525
3.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0619
2.21**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6991
3.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-6.0328
-1.19
γ28.1657
1.19
γ3-2.0056
-0.66
γ4-1.2494
-0.43
γ52.5215
0.77
γ6-7.2650
-1.66*
γ715.4964
3.62***
γ8-18.1593
-5.27***
γ913.3925
4.75***
γ10-5.7239
-3.03***

Persistence:

0.761

Half-life:

3 days