Contextlogic Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
24.98%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
25.60%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
26.38%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8304 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0643 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7307 | 4.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -6.6573 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 9.0351 | 1.22 |
| γ3 | -2.4050 | -0.75 |
| γ4 | -0.9774 | -0.33 |
| γ5 | 2.7653 | 0.79 |
| γ6 | -8.3285 | -1.76* |
| γ7 | 15.9457 | 3.70*** |
| γ8 | -16.1315 | -4.66*** |
| γ9 | 9.3517 | 3.13*** |
| γ10 | -2.4410 | -1.02 |
Persistence:
0.795
Half-life:
3 days
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