Contextlogic Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
29.62%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
31.83%
increased by 1.55%
1 Month
36.07%
increased by 5.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0563 | 12.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7287 | 42.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0864 | 6.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7639 | 1.62 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8500 | 3.73*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0989 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.828
Half-life:
4 days
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