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V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

29.62%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

31.83%

increased by 1.55%

1 Month

36.07%

increased by 5.79%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0563
12.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7287
42.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0864
6.13***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7639
1.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8500
3.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0989
0.40

Persistence:

0.828

Half-life:

4 days