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V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

42.29%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

44.04%

increased by 1.46%

1 Month

46.00%

increased by 3.42%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8238
2.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0656
2.26**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7050
3.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-6.7748
-1.26
γ29.2404
1.28
γ3-2.5544
-0.81
γ4-0.8666
-0.30
γ52.6084
0.76
γ6-8.0005
-1.72*
γ715.2365
3.59***
γ8-14.4986
-4.20***
γ95.4828
1.68*
γ107.4959
1.64

Persistence:

0.771

Half-life:

3 days