Contextlogic Holdings Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
42.29%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
44.04%
increased by 1.46%
1 Month
46.00%
increased by 3.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8238 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0656 | 2.26** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7050 | 3.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -6.7748 | -1.26 |
| γ2 | 9.2404 | 1.28 |
| γ3 | -2.5544 | -0.81 |
| γ4 | -0.8666 | -0.30 |
| γ5 | 2.6084 | 0.76 |
| γ6 | -8.0005 | -1.72* |
| γ7 | 15.2365 | 3.59*** |
| γ8 | -14.4986 | -4.20*** |
| γ9 | 5.4828 | 1.68* |
| γ10 | 7.4959 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.771
Half-life:
3 days
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