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V-Lab
V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

31.73%

decreased by 1.55%

1 Week

31.62%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

31.50%

decreased by 1.78%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8469
3.11***
αARCH0.0660
2.25**
βGARCH0.6845
3.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-6.0880
-1.22
γ28.2407
1.22
γ3-2.0239
-0.67
γ4-1.2537
-0.43
γ52.3706
0.73
γ6-6.7549
-1.57
γ714.9092
3.45***
γ8-18.0601
-5.09***
γ913.7028
4.19***
γ10-4.6794
-1.14

0.751

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8469
3.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0660
2.25**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6845
3.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-6.0880
-1.22
γ28.2407
1.22
γ3-2.0239
-0.67
γ4-1.2537
-0.43
γ52.3706
0.73
γ6-6.7549
-1.57
γ714.9092
3.45***
γ8-18.0601
-5.09***
γ913.7028
4.19***
γ10-4.6794
-1.14

Persistence:

0.751

Half-life:

2 days