V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
31.73%
decreased by 1.55%
1 Week
31.62%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Month
31.50%
decreased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8469 | 3.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.0660 | 2.25** |
| βGARCH | 0.6845 | 3.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -6.0880 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 8.2407 | 1.22 |
| γ3 | -2.0239 | -0.67 |
| γ4 | -1.2537 | -0.43 |
| γ5 | 2.3706 | 0.73 |
| γ6 | -6.7549 | -1.57 |
| γ7 | 14.9092 | 3.45*** |
| γ8 | -18.0601 | -5.09*** |
| γ9 | 13.7028 | 4.19*** |
| γ10 | -4.6794 | -1.14 |
0.751
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8469 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0660 | 2.25** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6845 | 3.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -6.0880 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 8.2407 | 1.22 |
| γ3 | -2.0239 | -0.67 |
| γ4 | -1.2537 | -0.43 |
| γ5 | 2.3706 | 0.73 |
| γ6 | -6.7549 | -1.57 |
| γ7 | 14.9092 | 3.45*** |
| γ8 | -18.0601 | -5.09*** |
| γ9 | 13.7028 | 4.19*** |
| γ10 | -4.6794 | -1.14 |
Persistence:
0.751
Half-life:
2 days
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