Contextlogic Holdings Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
36.17%
1 Week
36.45%
1 Month
37.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0394 | 3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0277 | 10.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9557 | 306.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0332 | 5.26*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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