V-Lab
Contextlogic Holdings Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
31.72%
1 Week
32.01%
1 Month
33.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 112% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0364 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0277 | 10.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9567 | 317.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0312 | 5.07*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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