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V-Lab

Contextlogic Holdings Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

30.23%

decreased by 2.50%

1 Week

32.62%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

40.80%

increased by 8.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Contextlogic Holdings Inc AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 40% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2977
10.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2017
18.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7580
104.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0806
3.93***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days