Contextlogic Holdings Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
30.23%
1 Week
32.62%
1 Month
40.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 40% more than positive returns
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2977 | 10.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2017 | 18.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7580 | 104.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0806 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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