V-Lab
PepsiCo Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.31%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
15.53%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
16.34%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0199 | 6.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.1240 | 10.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8429 | 101.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.0523 | 2.54** |
0.993
Persistence100d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0199 | 6.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1240 | 10.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8429 | 101.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0523 | 2.54** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on Equities