V-Lab
Microsoft Corp Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
25.87%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Week
26.22%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Month
27.41%
decreased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 41% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 41% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0950 | 8.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.1759 | 12.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7665 | 72.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.0717 | 2.60*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0950 | 8.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1759 | 12.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7665 | 72.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0717 | 2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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