V-Lab
Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.75%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
35.46%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
39.07%
increased by 4.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 265% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 265% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0375 | 3.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7933 | 32.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.0994 | 5.18*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0770 | 1.33 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0932 | 2.13** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8861 | 15.48*** |
0.881
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0375 | 3.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7933 | 32.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0994 | 5.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0770 | 1.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0932 | 2.13** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8861 | 15.48*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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