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V-Lab
V-Lab

Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

38.50%

decreased by 2.62%

1 Week

36.99%

decreased by 4.13%

1 Month

34.48%

decreased by 6.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 11:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 259% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 259% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0383
3.59***
βGARCH0.7953
33.53***
γleverage0.0993
5.21***
λ₁tau intercept0.0738
1.30
λ₂forecast adj.0.0868
2.09**
λ₃tau persistence0.8932
16.27***

0.883

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0383
3.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7953
33.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0993
5.21***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0738
1.30
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0868
2.09**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8932
16.27***

Persistence:

0.883

Half-life:

6 days