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V-Lab

Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

31.23%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Week

31.53%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Month

32.24%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 229% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0421
15.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7896
70.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0962
17.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0828
2.02**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0978
1.63
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8793
12.50***

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days