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V-Lab
V-Lab

Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

32.80%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

34.42%

increased by 1.17%

1 Month

36.13%

increased by 2.88%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 263% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 263% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0377
3.53***
βGARCH0.7950
33.43***
γleverage0.0992
5.20***
λ₁tau intercept0.0768
1.32
λ₂forecast adj.0.0910
2.10**
λ₃tau persistence0.8882
15.58***

0.882

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0377
3.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7950
33.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0992
5.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0768
1.32
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0910
2.10**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8882
15.58***

Persistence:

0.882

Half-life:

6 days