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V-Lab

Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

36.27%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

37.83%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

41.06%

increased by 3.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 269% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0369
14.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7928
71.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0994
18.78***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0787
1.93*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0970
1.62
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8821
12.65***

Persistence:

0.879

Half-life:

5 days