V-Lab
Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
36.27%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
37.83%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
41.06%
increased by 3.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 269% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0369 | 14.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7928 | 71.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0994 | 18.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0787 | 1.93* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0970 | 1.62 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8821 | 12.65*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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