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V-Lab
V-Lab

Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

33.75%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

35.46%

increased by 1.11%

1 Month

39.07%

increased by 4.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 265% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 265% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0375
3.51***
βGARCH0.7933
32.92***
γleverage0.0994
5.18***
λ₁tau intercept0.0770
1.33
λ₂forecast adj.0.0932
2.13**
λ₃tau persistence0.8861
15.48***

0.881

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0375
3.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7933
32.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0994
5.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0770
1.33
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0932
2.13**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8861
15.48***

Persistence:

0.881

Half-life:

5 days