V-Lab
Microsoft Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.23%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
31.53%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Month
32.24%
decreased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 229% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0421 | 15.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7896 | 70.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0962 | 17.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0828 | 2.02** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0978 | 1.63 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8793 | 12.50*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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