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V-Lab

Microsoft Corp GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

29.23%

increased by 3.20%

1 Week

29.32%

increased by 3.29%

1 Month

29.67%

increased by 3.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC

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graph of Microsoft Corp GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days.

σ

GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0554
3.52***
αARCH0.0663
8.73***
βGARCH0.9206
117.55***

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0554
3.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0663
8.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9206
117.55***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days