Applied Materials Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
54.56%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
54.52%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Month
54.37%
decreased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~158 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0432 | 3.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.0422 | 8.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9534 | 183.92*** |
0.996
Persistence158d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0432 | 3.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0422 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9534 | 183.92*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
Other Applied Materials Inc Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Equities