V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
70.89%
increased by 1.49%
1 Week
70.16%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
68.12%
decreased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 400% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0168 | 10.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9002 | 171.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0670 | 20.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 3.29*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0164 | 4.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9825 | 238.47*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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