V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
72.30%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
71.65%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Month
69.90%
decreased by 3.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0163 | 10.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9003 | 173.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0681 | 20.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 3.29*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0166 | 4.24*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9824 | 237.93*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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