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V-Lab

Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

72.30%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

71.65%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Month

69.90%

decreased by 3.13%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0163
10.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9003
173.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0681
20.93***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0094
3.29***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0166
4.24***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9824
237.93***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days