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V-Lab

Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

50.77%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

51.62%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

53.91%

increased by 2.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0168
2.78***
βGARCH0.8991
72.84***
γleverage0.0681
6.13***
λ₁tau intercept0.0094
1.35
λ₂forecast adj.0.0161
3.54***
λ₃tau persistence0.9828
200.45***

0.950

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0168
2.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8991
72.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0681
6.13***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0094
1.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0161
3.54***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9828
200.45***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days