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V-Lab

Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

70.89%

increased by 1.49%

1 Week

70.16%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

68.12%

decreased by 1.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 400% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0168
10.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9002
171.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0670
20.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0094
3.29***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0164
4.22***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9825
238.47***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days