V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
50.77%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
51.62%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
53.91%
increased by 2.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0168 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8991 | 72.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.0681 | 6.13*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0094 | 1.35 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0161 | 3.54*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9828 | 200.45*** |
0.950
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0168 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8991 | 72.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0681 | 6.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 1.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0161 | 3.54*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9828 | 200.45*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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