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Applied Materials Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

56.48%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Week

56.43%

decreased by 2.34%

1 Month

56.24%

decreased by 2.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Applied Materials Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 171 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~171 daysv = 7.08 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run10.0219
1.25
αscore0.0542
10.47***
βpersistence0.9960
290.71***
νDF7.0783
2.27**

0.996

Persistence

171d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

10.0219
1.25
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0542
10.47***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9960
290.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0783
2.27**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

171 days