V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
52.74%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
52.71%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
52.61%
decreased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~163 daysv = 6.67 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.7705 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.0537 | 10.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9958 | 275.30*** |
| νDF | 6.6651 | 2.43** |
0.996
Persistence163d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.7705 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0537 | 10.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 275.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6651 | 2.43** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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