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Applied Materials Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

52.74%

decreased by 0.99%

1 Week

52.71%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Month

52.61%

decreased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Applied Materials Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~163 daysv = 6.67 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst9.7705
1.23
αARCH0.0537
10.44***
βGARCH0.9958
275.30***
νDF6.6651
2.43**

0.996

Persistence

163d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.7705
1.23
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0537
10.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9958
275.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6651
2.43**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

163 days