Applied Materials Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
53.09%
1 Week
53.06%
1 Month
52.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 161 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.7264 | 1.22 |
| αARCH | 0.0539 | 10.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9957 | 269.69*** |
| νDF | 6.6617 | 2.41** |
0.996
Persistence161d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.7264 | 1.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0539 | 10.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 269.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6617 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
161 days
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