V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
49.46%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
49.38%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
49.10%
decreased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9183 | 8.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0501 | 8.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9272 | 106.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0164 | -5.49*** |
| γ2 | 0.0278 | 6.42*** |
| γ3 | -0.0152 | -6.81*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9183 | 8.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0501 | 8.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9272 | 106.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0164 | -5.49*** |
| γ2 | 0.0278 | 6.42*** |
| γ3 | -0.0152 | -6.81*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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