Applied Materials Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
49.53%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Week
49.57%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
49.73%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 168 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~168 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0482 | 3.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0278 | 5.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9520 | 199.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0321 | 2.46** |
0.996
Persistence168d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0482 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0278 | 5.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9520 | 199.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0321 | 2.46** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
168 days
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