Applied Materials Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
83.24%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
83.07%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Month
82.38%
decreased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 182 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~182 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0468 | 3.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.0272 | 5.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9527 | 202.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.0327 | 2.52** |
0.996
Persistence182d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0468 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0272 | 5.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9527 | 202.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0327 | 2.52** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
182 days
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