V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
77.84%
increased by 0.50%
1 Week
77.69%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
77.13%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 185 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 114% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0455 | 12.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0273 | 20.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9534 | 805.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0311 | 9.70*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
185 days
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