V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
60.01%
decreased by 1.35%
1 Week
59.97%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Month
59.81%
decreased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 175 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~175 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0471 | 3.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0276 | 5.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9526 | 199.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0317 | 2.45** |
0.996
Persistence175d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0471 | 3.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0276 | 5.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9526 | 199.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0317 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
175 days
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