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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.13%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

12.84%

increased by 0.68%

1 Month

15.33%

increased by 3.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 404 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 123% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0362
14.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0402
14.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9333
546.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0495
8.90***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

404 days