V-Lab
AES Corp/VA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.83%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
12.52%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
14.94%
increased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 629 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 121% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 14.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0408 | 14.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9335 | 555.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0492 | 8.92*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
629 days
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