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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

13.44%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

14.17%

increased by 0.67%

1 Month

16.72%

increased by 3.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 208 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 133% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0425
14.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0382
14.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9330
536.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0510
9.10***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

208 days