V-Lab
AES Corp/VA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.13%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
12.84%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
15.33%
increased by 3.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 404 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 123% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0362 | 14.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0402 | 14.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9333 | 546.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0495 | 8.90*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
404 days
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