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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

11.83%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

12.52%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

14.94%

increased by 3.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 629 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 121% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0338
14.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0408
14.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9335
555.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0492
8.92***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

629 days