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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

3.27%

increased by 0.31%

1 Week

7.27%

increased by 4.31%

1 Month

452.20%

increased by 449.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 236% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 236% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0270
2.21**
βGARCH0.8662
56.70***
γleverage0.0636
3.79***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.9999
37.44***
λ₃tau persistence0.0001
0.07

0.925

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0270
2.21**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8662
56.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0636
3.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9999
37.44***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0001
0.07

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days