AES Corp/VA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
3.27%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
7.27%
increased by 4.31%
1 Month
452.20%
increased by 449.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 236% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 236% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0270 | 2.21** |
| βGARCH | 0.8662 | 56.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.0636 | 3.79*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9999 | 37.44*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0001 | 0.07 |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0270 | 2.21** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8662 | 56.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0636 | 3.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9999 | 37.44*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0001 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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