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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

4.11%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

4.24%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

4.84%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~127 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0175
2.47**
αARCH0.1360
10.19***
βGARCH0.9946
490.42***
γleverage-0.0451
-3.05***

0.995

Persistence

127d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0175
2.47**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1360
10.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9946
490.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0451
-3.05***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

127 days