V-Lab
AES Corp/VA EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.05%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.19%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.77%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~130 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0173 | 2.46** |
| αARCH | 0.1362 | 10.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9947 | 493.64*** |
| γleverage | -0.0450 | -3.07*** |
0.995
Persistence130d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0173 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1362 | 10.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 493.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0450 | -3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
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