Howmet Aerospace Inc EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
35.55%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
35.74%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
36.44%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 141% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 141% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0242 | 2.30** |
| αARCH | 0.0963 | 8.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9883 | 293.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.0398 | -2.77*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0242 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0963 | 8.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9883 | 293.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0398 | -2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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