V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
44.46%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
44.46%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Month
44.49%
decreased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 145% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 145% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0241 | 2.27** |
| αARCH | 0.0961 | 8.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9884 | 292.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.0404 | -2.80*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0241 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0961 | 8.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 292.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0404 | -2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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