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Howmet Aerospace Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

38.58%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

38.57%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Month

38.51%

decreased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 244% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 244% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0587
3.57***
αARCH0.0191
2.90***
βGARCH0.9473
166.55***
γleverage0.0465
2.86***

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0587
3.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0191
2.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9473
166.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0465
2.86***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days