Howmet Aerospace Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
38.58%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
38.57%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
38.51%
decreased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 244% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 244% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0587 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0191 | 2.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9473 | 166.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0465 | 2.86*** |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0587 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0191 | 2.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9473 | 166.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0465 | 2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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