V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
50.13%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
49.92%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Month
49.12%
decreased by 2.09%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 255% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 255% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0579 | 3.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.0186 | 2.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9477 | 168.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.0474 | 2.91*** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0579 | 3.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0186 | 2.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9477 | 168.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0474 | 2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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