V-Lab
Johnson & Johnson GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
25.56%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
25.56%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
25.54%
decreased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 173% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0245 | 19.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0425 | 18.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9111 | 476.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0735 | 12.92*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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