Johnson & Johnson GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
26.92%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
26.89%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
26.77%
decreased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 176% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0248 | 19.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0424 | 18.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9104 | 472.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0746 | 13.03*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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