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V-Lab

Johnson & Johnson MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

36.31%

increased by 12.64%

1 Week

47.37%

increased by 23.70%

1 Month

172.72%

increased by 149.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Johnson & Johnson MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0035
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0069
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.0753
36.91***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2602
30.90***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0122
0.37

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days