Johnson & Johnson APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
30.69%
increased by 3.16%
1 Week
30.53%
increased by 3.00%
1 Month
29.96%
increased by 2.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 134% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0269 | 27.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0863 | 39.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9137 | 452.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3483 | 19.51*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1716 | 27.72*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
44 days
Other Johnson & Johnson Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities