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V-Lab

Johnson & Johnson APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

21.06%

increased by 0.27%

1 Week

21.19%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

21.67%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:51 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Johnson & Johnson APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 133% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 133% more than positive returnsδ = 1.17 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0267
6.91***
αARCH0.0860
9.97***
βGARCH0.9140
114.59***
γleverage0.3459
4.86***
δpower1.1746
6.93***

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0267
6.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0860
9.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9140
114.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3459
4.86***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1746
6.93***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days