Johnson & Johnson APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
21.06%
1 Week
21.19%
1 Month
21.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 133% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0267 | 6.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0860 | 9.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9140 | 114.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.3459 | 4.86*** |
| δpower | 1.1746 | 6.93*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0267 | 6.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0860 | 9.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9140 | 114.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3459 | 4.86*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1746 | 6.93*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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