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V-Lab

Johnson & Johnson APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

30.69%

increased by 3.16%

1 Week

30.53%

increased by 3.00%

1 Month

29.96%

increased by 2.43%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Johnson & Johnson APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 134% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0269
27.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0863
39.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9137
452.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3483
19.51***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1716
27.72***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

44 days