McDonald's Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
19.18%
1 Week
19.38%
1 Month
20.14%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 136% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0218 | 3.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0628 | 8.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9372 | 114.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.3455 | 4.30*** |
| δpower | 1.1907 | 6.46*** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0628 | 8.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9372 | 114.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3455 | 4.30*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1907 | 6.46*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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