V-Lab
Microsoft Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.31%
1 Week
27.63%
1 Month
28.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 108% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0363 | 4.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0695 | 7.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9302 | 125.50*** |
| γleverage | 0.3273 | 3.83*** |
| δpower | 1.0754 | 6.21*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0363 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0695 | 7.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9302 | 125.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3273 | 3.83*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0754 | 6.21*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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