Merck & Co Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
29.97%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
30.01%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
30.17%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0289 | 15.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0433 | 21.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9508 | 401.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7579 | 15.48*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8305 | 17.23*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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