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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

29.97%

decreased by 0.99%

1 Week

30.01%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Month

30.17%

decreased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0289
15.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0433
21.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9508
401.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7579
15.48***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8305
17.23***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days