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Merck & Co Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

28.12%

increased by 0.66%

1 Week

28.23%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

28.61%

increased by 1.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.86 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 0.86 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0265
3.87***
αARCH0.0405
5.16***
βGARCH0.9545
106.17***
γleverage0.7503
3.63***
δpower0.8573
4.34***

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0265
3.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0405
5.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9545
106.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7503
3.63***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8573
4.34***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days