V-Lab
KBR Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
46.91%
increased by 4.57%
1 Week
46.90%
increased by 4.56%
1 Month
46.88%
increased by 4.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 218% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.02 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0646 | 14.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0704 | 20.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 261.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5117 | 14.70*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0227 | 25.05*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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