V-Lab
Osisko Gold Group Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
86.84%
1 Week
79.57%
1 Month
69.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 8.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7136 | 24.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6790 | -9.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1672 | 8.19*** |
Persistence:
0.802
Half-life:
3 days
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