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V-Lab

Osisko Gold Group Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

86.84%

increased by 30.33%

1 Week

79.57%

increased by 23.06%

1 Month

69.56%

increased by 13.05%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Osisko Gold Group Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
4.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1045
8.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7136
24.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.6790
-9.24***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1672
8.19***

Persistence:

0.802

Half-life:

3 days