V-Lab
Tectonic Therapeutic Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
99.51%
1 Week
101.28%
1 Month
102.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.62 |
| αARCH | 0.2205 | 2.38** |
| βGARCH | 0.4308 | 1.68* |
| γleverage | 0.4558 | 1.43 |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 1.64 |
0.607
Persistence1d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.62 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2205 | 2.38** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4308 | 1.68* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4558 | 1.43 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.607
Half-life:
1 days
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