V-Lab
Tectonic Therapeutic Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
82.38%
decreased by 28.49%
1 Week
96.68%
decreased by 14.19%
1 Month
106.28%
decreased by 4.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 250% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 250% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.1997 | 2.25** |
| βGARCH | 0.2064 | 2.25** |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 1.99** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.58 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7903 | 2.05** |
0.656
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1997 | 2.25** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2064 | 2.25** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 1.99** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.58 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7903 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.656
Half-life:
2 days
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