V-Lab
RTX Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.93%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
24.39%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
26.00%
increased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0061 | 3.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8994 | 314.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1246 | 35.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0052 | 5.29*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0109 | 5.35*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9873 | 401.69*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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