V-Lab
RTX Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.92%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
26.27%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
27.37%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0060 | 0.95 |
| βGARCH | 0.8996 | 90.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.1242 | 8.99*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0052 | 1.31 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0108 | 2.25** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9874 | 168.85*** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0060 | 0.95 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8996 | 90.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1242 | 8.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0052 | 1.31 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0108 | 2.25** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9874 | 168.85*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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