V-Lab
Buda Juice Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
78.62%
1 Week
80.03%
1 Month
90.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 292 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2373 | 90.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8790 | 316.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2373 | -20.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.51** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2722 | 2.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7278 | 5.33*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
292 days
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